We are two weeks past the GOP debate and here's how the field looks.
The Democrats
Bernie Sanders
His popularity continues to soar...in some polls, while the MSM continues to ignore him. This should telegraph what is already obvious to most educated minds: the MSM can make or break a candidate. In Bernie's case it has chosen to break him.
Quinnipiac > Clinton 48, Sanders 15
Huffpost > Clinton 50.9, Sanders 20
CNN/ORC > Clinton 47, Sanders 29
Bernie will not be able to beat Trump in a general election, nor Walker nor even Fiorina.
Hillary Clinton
She is waning relative to GOP candidates and Sanders. The email server controversy is only getting more heated and people are demanding explanations which she can't deliver. Who wipes their server clean after the FBI wants to look into it? Is this not Obstruction of Justice? For Petraeus and the rest of us regular folks it would be, but not for the Clinton's. They are above the law, don't you know.
When she was asked if she had wiped clean her server, this was her flippant answer: "what like with a cloth or something?". And she said it with a smile. Anyone who is defending their integrity would have fully understood the question and answered it with a very forceful "no, I did not wipe the server clean". Pretending she does not know how to wipe a server clean is not a clean answer. Maybe she doesn't know how, but she can certainly ask someone in her IT team to wipe it clean. Either way, if she gave the order, she wiped it clean, as in Clintongate.
"Black Lives Matter" is now a campaign issue, thanks to Hillary.
CNN/ORC > Clinton 51, Trump 45. ..and the gap is narrowing.
Given the disproportionate fallout Petraeus incurred for sharing classified information with an associate who was already cleared for such information, her indictment should be disproportionately severe for wiping clean her server.
I predict her campaign by December will have been reduced to a trickle. At that point Biden will see an opening and step in the arena, but he'll be perceived as old-news and a permutation of Obama's failed administration.
For die-hard feminists Clinton is the ticket, no matter if she cleaned out her server. As long as they can have a female President, who cares how she got there?
Joe Biden
His supporters are waiting for him to make up his mind. If he stays out of the race, they will most likely move to Clinton's camp. But, with Clinton's campaign losing traction it is more likely that Joe will enter the race, if only to keep the race alive on the Dem side. Even without declaring he is leading Trump 45/42 in FL, 48/40 in PA, 48/40 in Ohio, and also leading Bush in Ohio 42/39, according to Quinnipiac.
Given that his son before passing away urged him to seize the 2016 opportunity, my sense is that Joe will run, but is waiting for the right moment. He will likely jump in the ring when he is tagged by Hillary, just like they do in WWF.
The GOP
Donald Trump
He still maintains the lead among GOP candidates, but has he capped out? Can he sustain that popularity over the long haul? Can he keep up the bombastic style or will he fade? Will the GOP punish him for not being loyal? Will he emerge as the opportunistic Independent candidate after the Primary has brushed him off? The Huffington Post has relegated Trump news to the Entertainment section.
Morning Consult > Trump 32, Bush 12, Carson (& the Rest of the Pack) 7 and under.
CNN > Trump 24, Bush 13, Carson (& the Rest of the Pack) 9 and under.
FOX> Trump 25, Bush 9, Carson (& the Rest of the Pack) 12 and under.
Florida Republican Presidential Primary, by Quinnipiac:
Trump 21, Bush 17, Carson 11, Rubio 11, Cruz 7, Walker 4, Fiorina 7, Huckabee 4, Paul 4, Kasich 3, Jindal 1, Christie 1, Perry 0, Graham 0
If I was Paul, Kasich, Jindal, Christie, Perry and Graham, Pataki, and Santorum, not seeing how I could possibly generate momentum going forward, I would fold at this point. Ditto for O'Malley, Webb and Chafee on the Dem side.
Jeb Bush
Some in the GOP believe the last thing they need is another Bush in control. Jeb's flat performance is temporary in my view. The Primary machinery will ensure he emerges victorious. Besides, there is plenty of time for the Donald to stick his foot in his mouth some more and alienate more groups. So far, the Hispanic and feminine vote has jumped the Trump ship.
Scott Walker
This from The New York Times (Aug. 19) is the writing on the wall for Walker:
"DES MOINES — On a three-day tour of Iowa after declaring his candidacy for president last month, Scott Walker wore the same rolled-sleeves uniform, told the same sports joke and answered questions with verbatim passages from his announcement speech, whether he was in Davenport, Cedar Rapids or Sioux City.
He was disciplined almost to the point of seeming robotic.
Since then, a bracingly unscripted candidate has upended the Republican race. And no one has suffered more in the Summer of Trump than Mr. Walker, the Wisconsin governor, who has sagged in the polls from early Iowa front-runner to unimpressive single digits.
In a blunt self-critique, Mr. Walker acknowledged on a private conferencecall with donors on Monday that voters had found him passionless. He announced a reset of his campaign, according to a participant in the call, in which he would take on the Republican establishment to show that, like Donald J. Trump, he, too, strongly opposed the status quo."
Walker wants to remake himself into Trump! Right! He may as well morph into a five-leaf clover.
Here's what the sane media is saying about the insanity:
Where does this leave America? It leaves America with these choices: a bombastic entertainer, a hardcore career socialist, a pro-Core career clone, and a career politician who can obstruct justice and would attack Iran as a matter of policy. That is not a lot of choice.
What America needs is an independent candidate who has not made politics his career, who is not bought and scripted, who articulates his policies in a clear concise manner, who has no skeletons in his closet, who is implacable... a sense of humor would be a bonus. Such a candidate would stand out like a beacon. Is there such a candidate out there?
We'll know by the end of November, after the dust has settled a bit.
